FAQ
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“Futures”, also known as the “futures field”, “futures research”, “futures studies”, “futures analysis”, sometimes “futurism”, is structured long-term thinking about the future to improve decisions made today. At Forum for the Future we focus particularly on using futures to enable system change for sustainability. This means acknowledging uncertainty, drawing on diverse perspectives, and thinking systemically and in terms of multiple possible futures.
Read more about the role of futures in sustainability.
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We are rapidly running out of time to avert the worst of the climate and biodiversity crises but as conversations gather pace on how to ‘build back better’ post COVID-19, we have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reimagine how the world works.
In order to grapple with ‘what next?’, it’s vital we first understand how the world is changing right now. What ideas and innovations are emerging? How can they play out in the years ahead? How do we intervene to enable a narrative shift?
By tracking trends and innovations and making sense of their implications, futures practice helps build resilience – navigate complexity in a non-linear, disruptive future and helps identify how to act on windows of opportunity for long-term success.
Futures can be used to:
- Uncover tacit assumptions and opens perspectives to new possibilities
- Strengthen long-term planning
- Set, define and test ambitious goals
- Stimulate product, service and system innovation
- Build capacity to understand and engage with sustainability
- Provide a platform for alignment and collaboration
- Generate a compelling mandate for change
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Futures can be applied to help shape a new or refreshed strategy, generate business opportunities and build senior management teams.
Futures help to:- Identify risks and opportunities on the horizon
- Anticipate and prepare for emerging trends
- Strengthen long-term strategic planning
- Stimulate product, service & system innovation
- Build powerful future visions
- Drive organisational change and inspire new ideas
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A signal of change – is like a seed of a possible future. It can be any development, idea or innovation that points to a future possibility different to today’s norm.
We are especially interested in signals that point to the possibility of significant systemic change, or those that illuminate an unexpected aspect of an ongoing change. Not all signals do end up coming to fruition, because the future is inherently uncertain. Signals help us to think in terms of multiple possible futures, to think more widely and creatively about the future and to anticipate unintended consequences.
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The future is inherently uncertain and unpredictable. To work with this uncertainty, we need to be able to think in terms of possibility, and to recognise that multiple futures are always possible. The signals of change we collect here are intended to help us and others do this.
Signals of change help with sensing and scanning the field of possibility – they can be thought of like seeds of possible futures.
We collect signals of change as short, bite-size articles so that they can be easily used or analysed in number.
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A signal of change – is like a seed of a possible future. It can be any development, idea or innovation that points to a future possibility different to today’s norm.
We are especially interested in signals that point to the possibility of significant systemic change, or those that illuminate an unexpected aspect of an ongoing change. Not all signals do end up coming to fruition, because the future is inherently uncertain. Signals help us to think in terms of multiple possible futures, to think more widely and creatively about the future and to anticipate unintended consequences.
Signals can be used to deepen our understanding of how trends develop. They help us understand what’s happening to individual trends, help us spot new trends, and are useful in helping to explore dynamism. They can also demonstrate change is afoot. When writing scenarios, signals support the plausibility of scenarios by indicating how change is already developing in the direction of the scenario.
When exploring signals and insight pieces try to think in terms of possibility, and to recognise that multiple futures are always possible.
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Sense check what you’re seeing is a signal – ask yourself:
– Is it a development, idea or innovation that points to a future possibility that’s different to today’s norm?
– What trends might it be contributing towards?
– If it were to scale, what impact would it have?
– How might it affect other areas of change?Make sure to include:
– A title that summarises the signal
– A sentence or two describing the signal and exploring why you think it is important
– The URL or source of the signal -
Insights are longer form explorations of the emerging systemic change we are seeing, often based around the intersection of various signals with long term trends, and what this might mean for efforts for sustainability. Insight pieces are intended to help with sensemaking – literally making sense of the world.
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Scenarios are stories that describe alternative possible futures by exploring the interplay of different factors shaping those futures. By presenting different possible futures they are an important way to grapple with future uncertainty. They can be used as a stimulus for a strategy or an innovation process.
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3 horizons is a technique used to:
- challenge current assumptions
- spot emerging opportunities and challenges
- innovate beyond incremental change
It connects what’s happening in the present with what is emerging in the future, and helps identify different pathways which can result between the present and possible elements of the future. It assumes change happens in waves.
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Whilst scenarios written today often don’t explicitly challenge our current assumptions, the 3 horizons process does allow for this. It presents a clear challenge to ‘the way things are done’. Additionally, 3 horizons puts spotlight on signals rather than just drawing out current trends. With scenarios, there’s usually a preferred version, but 3 horizons allows for many scenarios to be possible at once.
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The research strategy of reviewing a broad range of information sources across all possible sectors of change (e.g. STEEP) in order to glean data about emerging sources of change.
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For a detailed guide to horizon scanning, view the Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre Toolkit http://hsctoolkit.bis.gov.uk
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Live Research is a space dedicated to running participatory futures research projects that focus on addressing specific sustainability challenges and inquiry questions. Communities learn more rapidly than individuals, and when they learn and share, they build momentum for action. By convening a targeted community to explore a specific question, a Live Research project creates a rich space to:
- deepen shared understanding of the systemic challenge
- find out the very latest developments in fast-moving areas
- identify opportunities to innovate and act for sustainability
- test ideas with experts and stakeholders
Live Research projects can range FROM thematic hubs used to aggregate signals and insights on a specific topic TO extended digital conversations, curated by Forum for the Future and powered by the Futures Centre community, punctuated by horizon scanning and sensemaking sessions.
Didn’t find what you were looking for?
Write to us futurescentre@forumforthefuture.org
